61. An attempt at clearly communicating complex climate cues (Turk Mountain to Loft Mountain VA)

Today was the hottest day for me so far, so I spent much of the afternoon in the shade at Dundo picnic area. As displayed above, I’ve been carrying an avocado to enjoy at such a picnic area. So heavy but so worth it. I wrote a book review instead of suffering in the heat. Suffering sounds dramatic, but mentally and physically, it was one of my hardest days. Heat takes acclimation. Acclimation takes time. Anyways, the book review concerns Alexis de Tocqueville‘s Democracy in America, volume 1, and the review was a lot of fun to synthesize and communicate. I’ll share it before long.

It was 83 degrees today atop the mountains of Shenandoah. 91 down in Charlotteville at the University and in the tidewaters of Washington. That is sweltering for April and a daily record for Charlottesville. Further, the humidity was uncharacteristically low, leading to a fire wealther advisory. As the hazy overlook where I camped shows, heat, smoke, and stagnation rendered the views lackluster. 

The onset of El Niño

Northern Virginia is now designated as a region in moderate drought. It’s speculatve, but I am intrigued that the development of drought in Virginia accompanies the onset of an El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean. Drought in the central Appalachian region is associated with El Niños. The drought may not last, or perhaps it will persist as El Niño increasingly influences atmospheric patterns in the coming months to favor it. For at least this weekend, a solid day of rain is coming to ameliorate it. As a side-note, the day of rain perfectly aligns with the day of free national park entry. Though unfortunate for some fair weather tourists, this coincidence feels fortunate for me. National park crowds are not my scene, but in my current situation I have no recourse to avoid them.

Though the developing El Niño’s local effects (like drought in Virginia) remain uncertain, it will in all likelihood cause globally-averaged record heat in 2023 and widespread and frequent locally devastating heat waves. El Niño transfers heat from the ocean to the atmosphere, while La Niña does the opposite. After 3 consecutive La Niña winters, the time has come for Pacific Ocean heat to vent. 

Climate change latency and relation to El Niño

It’s not a comforting thought that the impacts of climate change in my lifetime are presently at their minimum. For the rest of my life, temperature, and the related volatility associated with higher temperature, will only increase. If we wait for utterly devastating climate change consequences to motivate a dramatic reduction in carbon emissions, it will be too late because temperature and devastation will continue rising after the emissions reduction. This is why, after finishing the trail, reducing carbon emissions will be my top priority for the coming decades. Even with dramatic emissions reductions, global temperature will inevitably rise throughout my lifetime. Only time will tell how disruptive this will prove to be. 

For now, we will experience a year or so of El Niño, which is like a short-term climate change preview. It gives us a rapid year-over-year increase in global average temperature, with the associated local consequences. El Niño is a natural cycle that gets superimposed on the long-term upward temperature trend, so the two are often conflated. This year, they will conspire together to heat the planet. Maybe that will help provide the necessary motivation to kick the transition (now backed by economic tailwinds and not just climate urgency – I’m working on an article about this) into overdrive.